Retail is entering a ‘confidence economy’, where reducing uncertainty – not just friction – is key to conversion. Jonathan Keighley, Chief Revenue Officer, SaleCycle, explores why building trust throughout the customer journey is now critical to reducing returns, improving loyalty and driving sustainable e-commerce growth.
Retail has spent years trying to make e-commerce faster. Fewer steps, less friction. More urgency to stop people thinking too long before committing to a purchase. That logic was built for a period where the main threat to conversion was inconvenience.
Now, the bigger threat is uncertainty. When shoppers don’t feel sure, speed doesn’t help. It either ends in cart abandonment or it ends in a purchase that gets undone later. Returns are no longer an operational nuisance at the edges of e-commerce; globally returns exceed US$640 billion a year, with Europe recording the highest rates worldwide. And the emotional driver underneath that is easy to recognise. SaleCycle’s data found that 64% of impulse buyers regret spur-of-the-moment purchases, often because the experience leaves them feeling misled or rushed.
That’s why 2026 is shaping up as a confidence economy. The brands that win won’t be the ones that move customers through the funnel fastest – they’ll be the ones that help customers reach a decision they’re comfortable sticking with.
Where confidence breaks in the journey
Abandonment is often treated as a checkout problem. Our data suggests something else. The largest drop-off happens earlier: 60% leave on the product page, 24% abandon in the cart and 16% exit at checkout.
That distribution matters because product pages are where the decision is still being built. If the decision is fragile, the shopper steps away long before payment. The causes are rarely mysterious, with research consistently pointing to the same friction points: hidden costs (48%), forced account creation (26%) and payment trust issues (25%).
Each of these failures has the same effect. It leaves the shopper carrying an unanswered question. That question doesn’t always show up as a complaint. It shows up as a pause, a tab left open, a session that ends quietly. This is also why ‘more urgency’ often lands badly. If the problem is uncertainty, a push to complete can feel like the brand is trying to close the sale before the shopper has the full picture. Some people may still buy. A higher share will leave. A meaningful share will buy and return.
The device split sharpens this further. Seventy percent of abandonments happen on mobile, where limited space makes it harder to check details quickly. At the same time, 56% of conversions happen on desktop, suggesting many shoppers shift to a screen where they can compare, read and commit with more control. This reflects how decisions are being made: in fragments, across devices, with breaks that form part of the purchase process.
A fast journey designed for uninterrupted attention struggles in that environment. The customer may still want the product and they may still intend to buy, but the path doesn’t hold together long enough for that intent to turn into a stable decision.
The 0.3% reality check
The strongest argument for building confidence is that ‘come back later’ rarely happens by itself. Our findings show that just 0.3% of shoppers return and complete a purchase without any follow-up. This changes how abandonment should be interpreted. A shopper leaving is not a neutral pause with a high probability of return. For most sessions, leaving is the end of that decision unless the brand provides a way back.
It also reframes the split in buying behaviour. Fifty-two percent of purchases happen on the first visit, 48% happen only after the shopper leaves and returns, typically prompted by re-engagement tactics rather than happening organically. Nearly half the market is already behaving in a way that requires continuity, but many e-commerce experiences still operate as if the only ‘real’ conversion is immediate conversion.
That mindset tends to produce the wrong fixes. It leads teams to shave seconds off checkout while leaving product pages thin on reassurance. It leads to more urgency overlays rather than clearer pricing earlier. It leads to account gates that ask for commitment before the shopper has confidence, follow-ups that nag rather than support. In a confidence economy, the priority is different. The goal is to keep the decision intact when the shopper slows down.
What ‘slowing down’ looks like in practice
Rather than elongating the checkout process, slowing down needs to be seen as a mental experience. It means the shopper can take their time without feeling they are losing access to information, context or control.
That starts on product pages, because that is where most drop-off begins. If key details are hidden, vague or delayed until checkout, the customer is forced into a decision: proceed without certainty or leave to reduce risk.
Then there is what happens after a shopper leaves. If only 0.3% return unaided, follow-ups become the bridge that lets the considered buyer complete the decision. Tactics such as SMS, onsite messages, email or WhatsApp can reach the shopper closer to the moment the decision paused and the follow-ups that perform best in this environment do not try to recreate urgency.
It supplies what was missing. Clear delivery details when delivery timing is the reason the shopper paused. Returns reassurance when risk blocked commitment. Pricing clarity when hidden costs created doubt. The message earns its right to exist by being useful. The commercial impact of this approach is broader than a recovered basket, it produces purchases that are less likely to be reversed. It reduces the conditions that create regret. It changes the relationship from ‘push to convert’ to ‘help to decide’, which is where long-term loyalty tends to come from.
This is the shift retailers need to make through the rest of 2026: treat confidence as an outcome that can be designed, measured and improved. Metrics like conversion rate, abandonment rate and recovered revenue still matter, but the direction of travel is toward conversion that holds. Lower returns. Fewer second-guessed purchases. More customers willing to buy again because the experience felt complete the first time
